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Philippine Economic History Data Science Quiz

PepengAgimat

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This is a little quiz our teacher gave us in our data science class. The question was what year were we surpassed by our neighbors economically and who was our President when we were surpassed? BTW, the last year in the charts is 2020. Kindly post your answers and I will check your test papers. If you are blind or playing blind you don't have to participate in the quiz. :coffee:


Philippines vs Japan GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs JAPAN

Philippines vs Hong Kong GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs HONG KONG

Philippines vs Singapore GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs SINGAPORE

Philippines vs South Korea GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs S. KOREA

Philippines vs Taiwan GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs TAIWAN

Philippines vs Malaysia GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs MALAYSIA

Philippines vs Thailand GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs THAILAND

Philippines vs Indonesia GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs INDONESIA

Philippines vs China GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs CHINA

Philippines vs Vietnam GDP Per Capita.png

PHILIPPINES vs VIETNAM
 
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Wala pong data science na subject when I was in school so I can't really analyze gaya sa class nyo. Can I just make comments na lang based on my own life experience? What I understand sa post is that GDP per capita ang measure ng economy para sa inyo. I assume din accurate data nyo na prenesent dito. Parang sa question and sa first 6 graphs, you are saying that the Marcos (Sr.) era is not the golden age as claimed by some loyalist. I am not a loyalist and having lived during Martial law years (maliit na bata pa nga lang), I would agree. However in fairness, I would like to add some personal comments
For Japan, your graph seem to show, we were already surpassed even before Pres. Marcos, Sr. ever took office
For the last four graphs, we were surpassed economically only after EDSA
Sa halos lahat na graphs, parang the gap between us and the other countries biglang nag-widen at tayo'y na iwan ng husto only after EDSA
So my point lang is:
1) At least during the Marcos era, even though we were surpassed by some of our neighbors like Taiwan, Korea, etc. at least the gap is not very large. But after EDSA, instead of narrowing lalong lumaki ang agwat. Meaning para sa akin, step in the wrong direction kung the aim is to habol with our neighbors economically
2) Maybe the wealth distribution is also important in economics not just the total GDP per capita. Baka (just conjecture lang on my part) naman many people feel the Marcos era was better kasi the gap between rich and poor is smaller compared to the present time, Kung may data kayo maybe you can confirm or refute it
3) External events might also have influence. Kasi like during 1970s po, di ba there was the oil energy crisis, wherein price of petroleum nag-increase ng more than 10x kaya countries na may langis like Malaysia, international banking and exchange like Singapore and HongKong and export oriented like Japan and Korea had advantage. I remember noong nagaral ako that was the explanation of our teacher kaya we were building these EPZA plus legal incentives to improve export. First sa Bataan then sa iba't ibang lugar

Anyway, di po ba this should not be a consideration for election kasi it's unfair naman to judge (good or bad) yung son based on the father. Ang turo sa akin before, pwedeng i-judge ang father sa nagawa ng anak but not the other way around
If the aim is to set history right then we should recognize that there is good and there is of course bad. Dapat di yung puro masama na lang ang i-turo and definitely di rin impression na perfect. No society or era was ever perfect di ba?
 
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Data Science at it's fundamental level is statistics. The former is just the modern and cooler way of calling it in line with technological developments in the IT industry for handling massive amounts of data but also to appeal to millennials who'd rather be called 'data scientists' instead of statisticians.

1) Bakit lumaki ang agwat? Dahil binaon tayo sa utang ni Marcos so yung mga sumunod na administration were forced to prioritize paying down the huge foreign debt instead of building infrastructure that would've sped up economic growth and attract investments that create more industries and jobs. Job creation is what cuts down poverty especially if you have so many folks who are not highly educated the easiest decent job is working at a factory and if you look at the experience of our neighbors they all focused on export-oriented development by building their manufacturing capability.

Actually, OK lang umutang even our neighbors or successful companies borrow money to finance expansion. The danger lies in how you use the debt. If you mismanage the money by siphoning it off to your overseas dummy bank accounts or building "ghost projects", getting "kickbacks" from contractors as a share of their profits if you award them an infrastructure project like Bataan Nuclear Power Plant etc. The contractors would try to "bawi" the kickback by overpricing the project, tipirin sa materiales etc. at the expense of the country's finances and economic well-being then you shouldn't be surprised if you have disastrous consequences.

Now the big question, What did Cory do with the huge foreign debt na pinamana ni Marcos sa bansa?

Ayaw bayaran ni Cory yung mga utang or at least a certain portion of it riddled with corruption. That was her original position. Unfortunately, very powerful ang mga bansang nagpautang satin and they can threaten our country with all sorts of things. This may have been one of the primary reasons why sobrang daming coup de etat nung panahon nya coming from the military whose leaders I suspect are secretly controlled by the global elite. They wanted her to pay up or else so she was threatened until she capitulated to their demands.

She negotiated with our foreign lenders na kung pwede naman patawarin na yung ibang utang natin gaya nung sa BNPP at iba pa na may halong corruption. She was expecting na makakuha sya ng concessions or conditions na pabor sa bansa natin dahil gumanda ang image natin for restoring our democracy. Pero walang patawad yung mga tulad ng IMF/WB at iba pa. Gusto nila bayaran natin lahat ng utang. Ang nakuha lang ng gobyerno is na extend yung maturity date ng utang. For example, yung mga short term loans na dapat bayaran na say in 1 year or less the banks agreed na habaan ang palugit ng payment period to say 5 to 10 years para lang bigyan tayo ng time na makabangon at unti-unting mabayaran ang mga utang. She also had to borrow dahil naubusan nga tayo ng dollars na pambili ng langis, machinery etc. para patakbuhin ang bansa natina at para rin bayaran yung ibang loans na di na extend ang maturity. Ito yung tinatawag na Structural Adjustment Loans (SAL). Kumbaga sa real estate nag refinance sya. Kaso lang itong mga loans na to may nakataling conditions. Cory had no choice but to swallow these "bitter pill" loan conditions dahil desperado na ang Pilipinas at the time. And Marcos put us in that desperate situation not Cory. Yung huling utang natin sa IMF nabayaran lang nung panahon ni GMA. How many years did it take? If you want more details eto basahin mo;

Aquino Scolds Banks in Speech to Congress

Another equally important question. Ano po ang mangyayari kung halimbawang nagmatigas si Cory at nag default na lang tayo sa mga utang natin?

On a personal level kung may credit card ka may idea ka na kung ano mangyayari sayo pag di ka nagbayad ng credit card debt. Legal problems, credit downgrades at kung ano ano pa. But we are talking here of a whole country's foreign debt so the repercussions are worse. But consider the following;

1). Sira ang image ng bansa mo sa international community.
2). Sira ang credit rating mo sa financial community which means either di ka na uli makakautang or kung makautang ka man sobrang taas ng interest rate na lalong magpapabaon sayo sa utang.
3.) If you don't have enough dollars how can you pay for your imported Saudi Arabian oil that powers your delivery trucks, power plants, transpo etc.?
3). Your country's currency babagsak ang palitan against the dollar at iba pang foreign currency. And you will have to pay more in pesos for the sam e item that you used to buy for less (inflation).
4). Pag sobrang taas na ng bilihin magaalsa na ang mga masa dahil di na nila masikmura ang sobrang taas na presyo. (social unrest which may trigger a revolution).
5). Pwedeng taasan ng gobyerno ang buwis na binabayaran mo o kaya gumawa ng ibang uri ng tax (sales taxes etc.) to help pay off the debt. Do you remember GMA's e-VAT?
6). Confiscating your dollar accounts or even cutting your monthly government pension as part of austerity measures (nagtitipid) . So similarly as part of our austerity measure di nagpatayo ng infra yung mga succeeding admins at kung meron man may halong Private funds like in (PPP) projects para less risk sa government. At marami pang iba. If you want a good example of what happens to countries that default or don't pay their foreign debt. Watch this;

When Argentina Said No to the IMF

A Life of Boom and Bust - Can Argentina Break the Cycle

2). Yung wealth distribution mahalaga rin of course pero the easiest way to distribute wealth is kung makapag bigay ka ng trabaho sa citizens mo. If your grandiose infrastructure projects don't create enough jobs mababa lang ang impact non sa economy and consequently sa poverty reduction. Worse, you will pay a heavy price dahil foreign denominated ang mga loans at may interest pa. What's the point of building an LRT train like the one DOST made during Pnoy's term if Duterte is still going to buy an imported one anyway? If I were President I'd push for it's development to the point where it can be mass produced and encourage local companies to buiid it with all sorts of tax incentives so we don't have to rely on imported ones and incur foreign debt for this type of equipment while at the same time upgrade our technological capability, provide more and better jobs and maybe even diversity our export. The trains that PNR buys from Indonesia is more impressive than all the infra projects ni Duterte precisely for the aforementioned reasons. You can tell they have ambitions of graduating from making cheap labor intensive goods into higher value added, more sophisticated products which is a harder feat to accomplish. Even if di pa ganon kaganda ang quality compared to Japanese, Korean or Chinese ones you have to admire them kasi you can see that they have a vision to become an industrialized country in the same league. They want to move away from simply exporting mineral products to China and elsewhere which doesn't benefit their economy that much. Eventually their capability will improve when they acquire the maturity after building so many of them over the years. This is the same pathway that Japan and Korea had to go through. They did not develop their technological prowess overnight.

If the government can't even create jobs for the people which is it's most basic mandate to raise the population's standard of living what chances do the future generations have? How many jobs did Duterte create vs all the past presidents? Partida pa yung iba dyan kahit walang infra na pinatayo marami naman trabahong na create. Read this to have some idea;

Duterte admin's job creation lowest among presidents after Marcos: think-tank

3). Back in the 70's only Malaysia and Indonesia were at least self-sufficient in oil and may even have exported to some extent. I know for a fact that Indonesia even became an OPEC member much later so you would think that all the other oil importing countries in the region like us would've suffered the same fate but that is not what happened. We ran out of dollars due to a number of factors.

We failed to develop an export led industrialization strategy to boost our dollar reserves and relied heavily on foreign borrowings. Yes I know about the export processing zones starting with Bataan in 1972 but their failure lies in the fact that the plants located there are also heavy importers of raw materials (paid in dollars) which essentially made them just sweatshops for assembly work. So the foreign currency they were generating were not sufficient for our needs. And relatively speaking, they were late in the game since Korea for example was already focused on exports since the 1960's. Our neighbors developed the basic industries that produce the materials for the goods that those types of plants needed like aluminum, copper, steel, petrochem etc. so their products were more competitive and had higher local content. They also developed industrial clusters which made their plants more efficient. They developed their own brands using their own research efforts which became global household names while we remained contented assembling products for foreign brands. It was also during the Marcos era na biglang dumami ang mga OFW sa Middle East especially Saudi - naisip siguro nila much easier to export Pinoys than build industries to acquire much needed foreign currency.

Marcos had the same vision with his 11 major industrial projects. Similar to the BNPP those greenfield projects require huge foreign loans to import machinery, hire foreign technical experts etc. but judging from the extent of corruption that happened to it thank god his other projects did not materialize coz it would've sank us deeper into debt. The only project that I know of which had some modicum of success is the PASAR copper smelter plant but which was eventually sold to a Swiss company called Glencore.

I'm not blaming everything bad that happened to our country on FM but he certainly played a huge role in our decline especially on the systemic corruption that started with his term. I can tolerate an incompetent president but a president who robs his own country when so many of his own people can't even feed themselves should be brought to justice and dealt with accordingly. Problem is Marcos was a lawyer so he knew all the loopholes which is why most of his hidden wealth was overseas under trust accounts etc. which made it much harder for the authorities to track down and go after. The other part of the equation is we didn't have a good family planning program like our neighbor Thailand, a county which around 1985 had the same population as ours but today is a different story. The Catholic church is partly to blame for blocking every FP programs in the past and even to this day. Slow moving economy plus fast population growth is a bad combination.

I'm not blaming his son for his dad's misdeeds but I can tell you this much. BBM was old enough to know what his father was doing including all the corruption going on. Should we believe that he was that naive? At kung alam nya why didn't he even express his opposition to what his father was doing? I don't expect him to expose his father's womanizing or any other personal stuff but you would expect that anything as serious as corruption on a grand scale that affects an entire country should be condemned. Yes, even by his own blood if that person has any values left in him especially when it's for the greater good of the nation you're supposed to be serving. Or maybe because he also receives benefits from such illicit activities which is why he stayed mum all these years. He can express dissatisfaction with the way his dad runs things without necessarily disrespecting him. That he didn't lift a finger speaks volumes about his character. And character my friend is just as important as ability when running a country.

No one is looking for a perfect person to lead us. What is involved here is risk. When you elect somebody you're taking the risk that the person you voted for could turn out to be a bad or good one if they win. Most of us don't know these candidates personally we can only judge based on their profiles and weigh the risks. And there are no guarantees how they will turn out if ever they win. Personally, I find BBM's profile risky on the downside. We all have different ways of screening candidates and no single method is appropriate it's just a personal preference.
 
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